Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lille W vs Bordeaux W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Lille W
Lille W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bordeaux W
Bordeaux W
M. Boucly 90+4'
L. Bourgouin 15'
N. Bahlouli 12'
4/24/2024Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Complexe Sportif Stadium 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Lille W25%
×Draw22%
Bordeaux W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille W
1.27
Bordeaux W
1.91

Bordeaux W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

creates per match

Lille W
1.00
Bordeaux W
1.31

allows per match

Lille W
2.50
Bordeaux W
1.55

finishing

Lille W+0.00on par
Bordeaux W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille W ↓

Bordeaux W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Lille W or draw
48%
Lille W or Bordeaux W
78%
Draw or Bordeaux W
75%

Winning margin

Lille W wins by 2+
10%
Bordeaux W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lille W 1+ goals
72%
Lille W 2+ goals
36%
Lille W 3+ goals
14%
Bordeaux W 1+ goals
85%
Bordeaux W 2+ goals
57%
Bordeaux W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lille W (draw refunded)
33%
Bordeaux W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 22 matches

Bordeaux W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille W attack 1.00 + Bordeaux W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bordeaux W attack 1.31 + Lille W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lille W scores more
25%
level
22%
Bordeaux W scores more
52%

Bordeaux W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bordeaux W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
D. RouxLille WLille W · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
N. Bahlouli↳ H. Sangaré
15'
L. Bourgouin↳ H. Sangaré
30'
Nesrine Bahlouli
39'
Laura Bourgouin
64'
Julie Pian
68'
Maelle Seguin
69'
M. Dehri← M. Haelewyn
73'
L. Azzaro← A. Ribeyra
74'
L. Autin← J. Karličić
88'
L. Pinot← N. Bahlouli
88'
Serena Pinto de Queirós← A. Kim
90+6'
Jessy Roux
90+6'
Lou Autin
90+4'
M. Boucly↳ D. Roux

Possession

57%Lille

Shots

19Lille

Pass accuracy

54%Lille

Statistics

LilleBordeaux
Overview
57%Possession43%
19Total Shots10
4Corners2
13Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots10
8On Target4
9Off Target5
2Blocked1
12Inside Box2
7Outside Box8
Passing
57%Possession43%
437Total Passes340
315Accurate Passes207
72%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Lille W vs Bordeaux W

Bordeaux W beat Lille W 2-1 in Feminine Division 1 on April 24, 2024.

Goals: N. Bahlouli (12'), L. Bourgouin (15'), M. Boucly (90+4').

Lille W controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Stadium 2 in Villeneuve d'Ascq.