Lille 2–1 Toulouse: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lille

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Toulouse

M. Bakker 72'

A. Gomes 57'

Z. Aboukhlal 39'

10/5/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 7Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Lille48%

×Draw25%

Toulouse27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LilleExpected goals in this matchToulouse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.13

Lille

1.58

Toulouse

1.13

Lille creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.77

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Lille

1.77

Toulouse

1.26

allows per match

Lille

0.99

Toulouse

1.39

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Lille-0.12scores less

Toulouse+0.24scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Toulouse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lille or draw

73%

Lille or Toulouse

75%

Draw or Toulouse

52%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+

25%

Toulouse wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals

79%

Lille 2+ goals

47%

Lille 3+ goals

21%

Toulouse 1+ goals

68%

Toulouse 2+ goals

31%

Toulouse 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)

64%

Toulouse (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 26 matches

Toulouse away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.77 + Toulouse defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Toulouse attack 1.26 + Lille defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lille scores more

48%

level

25%

Toulouse scores more

27%

Lille at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

O. Sahraoui

Lille · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

15'

39'

44'

46'

A. Bouaddi← André Gomes

46'

Tiago Santos← T. Meunier

57'

A. Gomes↳ O. Sahraoui

64'

S. Babicka← Z. Aboukhlal

64'

F. Magri← J. King

66'

M. Fernandez-Pardo← O. Sahraoui

67'

M. Bakker← G. Gudmundsson

72'

M. Bakker↳ A. Bouaddi

75'

C. Cresswell← D. Sidibé

76'

Mitchel BakkerGoal confirmed

81'

R. Cabella← E. Zhegrova

84'

M. Zajc← C. Cásseres

84'

W. Kamanzi← R. Nicolaisen

90+6'

Tiago Santos

90+3'

Frank Magri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LilleToulouse

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots9

1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.11

4Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

525Total Passes374

449Accurate Passes311

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.34Goals Prevented-0.34

Discipline

13Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2