Lille 2–1 Slovan Bratislava: Result & Stats

Lille

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Slovan Bratislava

10/26/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lille59%

×Draw23%

Slovan Bratislava18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LilleExpected goals in this matchSlovan Bratislava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.86

Lille

1.77

Slovan Bratislava

0.86

Lille creates 106% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

0.60

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Lille

2.00

Slovan Bratislava

1.13

allows per match

Lille

0.60

Slovan Bratislava

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille+0.00on par

Slovan Bratislava+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Slovan Bratislava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lille or draw

82%

Lille or Slovan Bratislava

77%

Draw or Slovan Bratislava

41%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+

33%

Slovan Bratislava wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals

83%

Lille 2+ goals

53%

Lille 3+ goals

26%

Slovan Bratislava 1+ goals

58%

Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals

21%

Slovan Bratislava 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)

77%

Slovan Bratislava (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Slovan Bratislava away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 2.00 + Slovan Bratislava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slovan Bratislava attack 1.13 + Lille defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lille scores more

59%

level

23%

Slovan Bratislava scores more

18%

Lille at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff