Lille 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Lille

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

J. David 31'

11/23/2021

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 5Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lille35%

×Draw27%

Red Bull Salzburg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LilleExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Lille

1.23

Red Bull Salzburg

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 19 away

0.57

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Lille

0.57

Red Bull Salzburg

1.58

allows per match

Lille

1.00

Red Bull Salzburg

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lille or draw

62%

Lille or Red Bull Salzburg

73%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

65%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+

15%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals

71%

Lille 2+ goals

35%

Lille 3+ goals

13%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

72%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

37%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)

48%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 0.57 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.58 + Lille defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lille scores more

35%

level

27%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

38%

Red Bull Salzburg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Reinildo

Lille · D

8.3

Match Events

8'

14'

31'

35'

59'

59'

67'

70'

84'

85'

85'

M. Kjærgaard← B. Aaronson

90+5'

90+6'

90'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LilleRed

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots11

4Corners5

16Fouls15

Shots

6Total Shots11

2On Target2

4Off Target4

0Blocked5

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

400Total Passes436

306Accurate Passes339

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0