Lille U19 1–0 Valencia U19: Result & Stats

Lille U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Valencia U19

N. Fatar 21'

10/23/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Complexe Sportif de Luchin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lille U1957%

×Draw23%

Valencia U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille U19Expected goals in this matchValencia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.00

Lille U19

1.83

Valencia U19

1.00

Lille U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.17

creates per match

1.17

0.83

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Lille U19

1.17

Valencia U19

1.17

allows per match

Lille U19

0.83

Valencia U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille U19+0.00on par

Valencia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille U19 ↓

Valencia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lille U19 or draw

80%

Lille U19 or Valencia U19

77%

Draw or Valencia U19

43%

Winning margin

Lille U19 wins by 2+

32%

Valencia U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lille U19 1+ goals

84%

Lille U19 2+ goals

54%

Lille U19 3+ goals

28%

Valencia U19 1+ goals

63%

Valencia U19 2+ goals

26%

Valencia U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Valencia U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Valencia U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Valencia U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Valencia U19 attack 1.17 + Lille U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lille U19 scores more

57%

level

23%

Valencia U19 scores more

20%

Lille U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lille U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

N. Fatar↳ J. Mouaddib

63'

Jesús Vázquez← David Montero

63'

Jose Lechon← Y. Musah

63'

Xavi Estació← José Pascual

64'

J. Mboyo← F. Çoğalan

76'

Ferrán Giner← N. Nlandu

79'

J. Ngoya← J. Mouaddib

90+5'

F. Ouattara← N. Fatar

Lille

Valencia

1

Blázquez

5

Guillamón

4

Molina

3

▼

Montero

2

▼

Pascual

6

▼

8

10

11

7

9

▼

1

2

3

4

6

5

10

▼

Çoğalan

7

A

▼

Mouaddib

9

⚽

▼

Fatar

8

Bardeli

11

Camara

Manager: M. Delestrez

64'▲J. Mboyo←▼F. Çoğalan

79'▲J. Ngoya←▼J. Mouaddib

90+5'▲F. Ouattara←▼N. Fatar

Lille U19 substitutes

13Mboyo12Ngoya14Ouattara18Lesage16Dejonge15Boula17Karamoko

Manager: Miguel Angulo

63'▲Jesús Vázquez←▼David Montero

63'▲Jose Lechon←▼Y. Musah

63'▲Xavi Estació←▼José Pascual

76'▲Ferrán Giner←▼N. Nlandu

Valencia U19 substitutes

14Vázquez16Lechon12Estació17Giner15Val13Manuel18Sierra

Match Recap: Lille U19 vs Valencia U19

Lille U19 beat Valencia U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 23, 2019.

Goals: N. Fatar (21').

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Luchin in Camphin-en-Pévèle.

Lille U19 vs Valencia U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lille U19 vs Valencia U19