Lille U19 1–2 Ajax U19: Result & Stats

Lille U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ajax U19

F. Ouattara 68'

K. Taylor 7'

B. Brobbey 3'

11/27/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Complexe Sportif de Luchin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lille U1935%

×Draw23%

Ajax U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille U19Expected goals in this matchAjax U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.74

Lille U19

1.56

Ajax U19

1.74

Ajax U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.17

creates per match

2.65

0.83

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Lille U19

1.17

Ajax U19

2.65

allows per match

Lille U19

0.83

Ajax U19

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille U19+0.00on par

Ajax U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille U19 ↓

Ajax U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lille U19 or draw

58%

Lille U19 or Ajax U19

77%

Draw or Ajax U19

65%

Winning margin

Lille U19 wins by 2+

17%

Ajax U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Lille U19 1+ goals

79%

Lille U19 2+ goals

46%

Lille U19 3+ goals

21%

Ajax U19 1+ goals

82%

Ajax U19 2+ goals

52%

Ajax U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Ajax U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Ajax U19 away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Ajax U19 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ajax U19 attack 2.65 + Lille U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lille U19 scores more

35%

level

23%

Ajax U19 scores more

42%

Ajax U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ajax U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

B. Brobbey↳ T. Douglas

7'

K. Taylor

19'

N. Unuvar

30'

S. van der Sloot← S. Hansen

32'

44'

49'

52'

68'

A. Salah-Eddine← N. Ünüvar

68'

F. Ouattara↳ N. Innocenti

77'

C. Niasse

88'

I. Karamoko← A. Camara

90'

D. Nlandu

Lille

Ajax

1

Raatsie

5

A

4

3

10

8

⚽

Taylor

6

Llansana

11

▼

Ünüvar

2

Regeer

7

▼

Hansen

9

⚽

1

6

2

3

4

A

8

5

10

7

▼

Mboyo

11

▼

Camara

9

⚽

Ouattara

Manager: M. Delestrez

52'▲F. Çoğalan←▼J. Mboyo

88'▲I. Karamoko←▼A. Camara

Lille U19 substitutes

13Çoğalan14Karamoko12Ascone16Dejonge17Mandefu18Lesage15Diallo

Manager: J. Heitinga

30'▲S. van der Sloot←▼S. Hansen

68'▲A. Salah-Eddine←▼N. Ünüvar

Ajax U19 substitutes

20Sloot15Salah-Eddine17Taşçı12Reiziger19Rasmussen18Waal16Warmerdam