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Lilla Torg vs Oskarshamns AIK — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Lilla Torg
Lilla Torg
Preview
14:00
Oskarshamns AIK
Oskarshamns AIK
8/2/2026Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 15
39%
Lilla Torg
model favours
39%27%33%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lilla Torg39%
×Draw27%
Oskarshamns AIK33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lilla Torg
1.28
Oskarshamns AIK
1.15

Lilla Torg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lilla Torg
1.14
Oskarshamns AIK
1.29

allows per match

Lilla Torg
1.00
Oskarshamns AIK
1.43

finishing

Lilla Torg+0.00on par
Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lilla Torg ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lilla Torg or draw
67%
Lilla Torg or Oskarshamns AIK
73%
Draw or Oskarshamns AIK
61%

Winning margin

Lilla Torg wins by 2+
18%
Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lilla Torg 1+ goals
72%
Lilla Torg 2+ goals
37%
Lilla Torg 3+ goals
14%
Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals
68%
Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals
32%
Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lilla Torg (draw refunded)
54%
Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lilla Torg at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lilla Torg attack 1.14 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oskarshamns AIK attack 1.29 + Lilla Torg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lilla Torg scores more
39%
level
27%
Oskarshamns AIK scores more
33%

Lilla Torg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lilla Torg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Torg
WDDLD
AIK
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lilla Torg face Oskarshamns AIK (Division 2 - Södra Götaland)

Division 2 - Södra Götaland returns with Lilla Torg hosting Oskarshamns AIK. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.