Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liffré vs Guingamp — Coupe de France 2018

Liffré
Liffré
FT
0 – 8
Guingamp
Guingamp
11/13/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Nelson Paillou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Liffré3%
×Draw7%
Guingamp90%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liffré
0.71
Guingamp
3.92

Guingamp creates 452% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Liffré
0.33
Guingamp
2.85

allows per match

Liffré
5.00
Guingamp
1.08

finishing

Liffré+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liffré ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–311%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Liffré or draw
10%
Liffré or Guingamp
93%
Draw or Guingamp
97%

Winning margin

Liffré wins by 2+
1%
Guingamp wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

Liffré 1+ goals
51%
Liffré 2+ goals
16%
Liffré 3+ goals
4%
Guingamp 1+ goals
98%
Guingamp 2+ goals
89%
Guingamp 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Liffré (draw refunded)
4%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liffré at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Guingamp away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liffré attack 0.33 + Guingamp defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.71

Guingamp attack 2.85 + Liffré defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Liffré scores more
3%
level
7%
Guingamp scores more
90%

Guingamp at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liffré vs Guingamp

Guingamp beat Liffré 8-0 in Coupe de France on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Nelson Paillou in Liffré.