Liezen 0–4 Voitsberg: Result & Stats

Liezen

FT

0 – 4

Voitsberg

8/19/2022

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 4Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Liezen19%

×Draw21%

Voitsberg59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LiezenExpected goals in this matchVoitsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.00

Liezen

1.05

Voitsberg

2.00

Voitsberg creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

2.17

1.84

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Liezen

1.00

Voitsberg

2.17

allows per match

Liezen

1.84

Voitsberg

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par

Voitsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

Voitsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Liezen or draw

41%

Liezen or Voitsberg

79%

Draw or Voitsberg

81%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+

7%

Voitsberg wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals

65%

Liezen 2+ goals

28%

Liezen 3+ goals

9%

Voitsberg 1+ goals

86%

Voitsberg 2+ goals

59%

Voitsberg 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)

25%

Voitsberg (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Voitsberg away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + Voitsberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Voitsberg attack 2.17 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Liezen scores more

19%

level

21%

Voitsberg scores more

59%

Voitsberg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Voitsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff