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Liezen vs Lebring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Liezen
Liezen
FT
2 – 0
Lebring
Lebring
10/29/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 15Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Liezen32%
×Draw23%
Lebring45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liezen
1.46
Lebring
1.79

Lebring creates 23% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Liezen
1.00
Lebring
1.74

allows per match

Liezen
1.84
Lebring
1.93

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par
Lebring+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

Lebring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Liezen or draw
55%
Liezen or Lebring
77%
Draw or Lebring
68%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+
14%
Lebring wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals
77%
Liezen 2+ goals
43%
Liezen 3+ goals
18%
Lebring 1+ goals
83%
Lebring 2+ goals
53%
Lebring 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)
41%
Lebring (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Lebring away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.93 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + Lebring defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lebring attack 1.74 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Liezen scores more
32%
level
23%
Lebring scores more
45%

Lebring at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lebring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Liezen 2–0 Lebring

Liezen beat Lebring 2-0 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Liezen in Liezen.