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Liezen vs Lafnitz II — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Liezen
Liezen
CANC
16:30
Lafnitz II
Lafnitz II
6/11/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 30Stadion Liezen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Liezen29%
×Draw23%
Lafnitz II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liezen
1.40
Lafnitz II
1.84

Lafnitz II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

creates per match

Liezen
1.00
Lafnitz II
1.84

allows per match

Liezen
1.84
Lafnitz II
1.80

finishing

Liezen+0.00on par
Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liezen ↓

Lafnitz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Liezen or draw
52%
Liezen or Lafnitz II
77%
Draw or Lafnitz II
71%

Winning margin

Liezen wins by 2+
13%
Lafnitz II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Liezen 1+ goals
75%
Liezen 2+ goals
41%
Liezen 3+ goals
17%
Lafnitz II 1+ goals
84%
Lafnitz II 2+ goals
55%
Lafnitz II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Liezen (draw refunded)
38%
Lafnitz II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liezen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liezen attack 1.00 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Liezen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Liezen scores more
29%
level
23%
Lafnitz II scores more
48%

Lafnitz II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Liezen host Lafnitz II

June 11, 2021: Liezen take on Lafnitz II in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Liezen host Lafnitz II at Stadion Liezen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.