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Lielupe vs Valka — Cup 2020

Lielupe
Lielupe
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Valka
Valka
5/17/2024CupCup · 1st RoundHanzas vidusskolas laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lielupe65%
×Draw15%
Valka20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lielupe
3.63
Valka
2.06

Lielupe creates 76% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lielupe
1.60
Valka
1.33

allows per match

Lielupe
2.80
Valka
5.67

finishing

Lielupe+0.00on par
Valka+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lielupe ↓

Valka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–26%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Lielupe or draw
80%
Lielupe or Valka
85%
Draw or Valka
35%

Winning margin

Lielupe wins by 2+
47%
Valka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lielupe 1+ goals
97%
Lielupe 2+ goals
87%
Lielupe 3+ goals
68%
Valka 1+ goals
87%
Valka 2+ goals
61%
Valka 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Lielupe (draw refunded)
77%
Valka (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lielupe at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Valka away — creates 1.33, concedes 5.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lielupe attack 1.60 + Valka defence 5.67 → ÷2 → 3.63

Valka attack 1.33 + Lielupe defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lielupe scores more
65%
level
15%
Valka scores more
20%

Lielupe at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lielupe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Lielupe 5–1 Valka

Lielupe beat Valka 5-1 in Cup on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Hanzas vidusskolas laukums in Riga.