Lielupe 1–2 RFS akadēmija: Result & Stats | Cup

Lielupe

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

RFS akadēmija

6/2/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundHanzas vidusskolas laukums

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lielupe13%

×Draw13%

RFS akadēmija74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LielupeExpected goals in this matchRFS akadēmija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

3.60

Lielupe

1.50

RFS akadēmija

3.60

RFS akadēmija creates 140% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

4.40

2.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Lielupe

1.60

RFS akadēmija

4.40

allows per match

Lielupe

2.80

RFS akadēmija

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lielupe+0.00on par

RFS akadēmija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lielupe ↓

RFS akadēmija →

0–01%

0–12%

0–24%

0–35%

0–45%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

73%27%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Lielupe or draw

26%

Lielupe or RFS akadēmija

87%

Draw or RFS akadēmija

87%

Winning margin

Lielupe wins by 2+

RFS akadēmija wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Lielupe 1+ goals

78%

Lielupe 2+ goals

44%

Lielupe 3+ goals

19%

RFS akadēmija 1+ goals

97%

RFS akadēmija 2+ goals

86%

RFS akadēmija 3+ goals

67%

Draw no bet

Lielupe (draw refunded)

14%

RFS akadēmija (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lielupe at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

RFS akadēmija away — creates 4.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lielupe attack 1.60 + RFS akadēmija defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

RFS akadēmija attack 4.40 + Lielupe defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lielupe scores more

13%

level

13%

RFS akadēmija scores more

74%

RFS akadēmija at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "RFS akadēmija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff