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Liechtenstein W vs Hong Kong W — Friendlies Women 2026

Liechtenstein W
Liechtenstein W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hong Kong W
Hong Kong W
11/29/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Liechtenstein W39%
×Draw23%
Hong Kong W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liechtenstein W
1.71
Hong Kong W
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Liechtenstein W
1.50
Hong Kong W
1.55

allows per match

Liechtenstein W
1.83
Hong Kong W
1.91

finishing

Liechtenstein W+0.00on par
Hong Kong W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein W ↓

Hong Kong W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Liechtenstein W or draw
62%
Liechtenstein W or Hong Kong W
77%
Draw or Hong Kong W
61%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein W wins by 2+
20%
Hong Kong W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Liechtenstein W 1+ goals
82%
Liechtenstein W 2+ goals
51%
Liechtenstein W 3+ goals
24%
Hong Kong W 1+ goals
82%
Hong Kong W 2+ goals
50%
Hong Kong W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein W (draw refunded)
51%
Hong Kong W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Hong Kong W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein W attack 1.50 + Hong Kong W defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hong Kong W attack 1.55 + Liechtenstein W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Liechtenstein W scores more
39%
level
23%
Hong Kong W scores more
38%

Liechtenstein W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Liechtenstein W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liechtenstein W vs Hong Kong W

Hong Kong W beat Liechtenstein W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on November 29, 2025.