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Liechtenstein U19 vs Switzerland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Liechtenstein U19
Liechtenstein U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Switzerland U19
Switzerland U19
11/21/2023UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Liechtenstein U194%
×Draw10%
Switzerland U1985%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liechtenstein U19
0.54
Switzerland U19
2.96

Switzerland U19 creates 448% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Liechtenstein U19
0.00
Switzerland U19
1.92

allows per match

Liechtenstein U19
4.00
Switzerland U19
1.08

finishing

Liechtenstein U19+0.00on par
Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liechtenstein U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–214%
0–313%
0–410%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Liechtenstein U19 or draw
15%
Liechtenstein U19 or Switzerland U19
90%
Draw or Switzerland U19
96%

Winning margin

Liechtenstein U19 wins by 2+
1%
Switzerland U19 wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Liechtenstein U19 1+ goals
42%
Liechtenstein U19 2+ goals
10%
Liechtenstein U19 3+ goals
2%
Switzerland U19 1+ goals
95%
Switzerland U19 2+ goals
79%
Switzerland U19 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Liechtenstein U19 (draw refunded)
5%
Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liechtenstein U19 at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liechtenstein U19 attack 0.00 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.54

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + Liechtenstein U19 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Liechtenstein U19 scores more
4%
level
10%
Switzerland U19 scores more
85%

Switzerland U19 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Switzerland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liechtenstein U19 vs Switzerland U19

Switzerland U19 beat Liechtenstein U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 21, 2023.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.