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Lidköping W vs Örebro SK W — Elitettan 2021

Lidköping W
Lidköping W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Örebro SK W
Örebro SK W
8/31/2024ElitettanElitettan · Round 17Framnäs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lidköping W50%
×Draw23%
Örebro SK W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lidköping W
1.83
Örebro SK W
1.30

Lidköping W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lidköping W
1.96
Örebro SK W
1.13

allows per match

Lidköping W
1.48
Örebro SK W
1.71

finishing

Lidköping W+0.00on par
Örebro SK W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidköping W ↓

Örebro SK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lidköping W or draw
73%
Lidköping W or Örebro SK W
77%
Draw or Örebro SK W
50%

Winning margin

Lidköping W wins by 2+
28%
Örebro SK W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lidköping W 1+ goals
84%
Lidköping W 2+ goals
54%
Lidköping W 3+ goals
28%
Örebro SK W 1+ goals
73%
Örebro SK W 2+ goals
37%
Örebro SK W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lidköping W (draw refunded)
65%
Örebro SK W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidköping W at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Örebro SK W away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidköping W attack 1.96 + Örebro SK W defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.83

Örebro SK W attack 1.13 + Lidköping W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lidköping W scores more
50%
level
23%
Örebro SK W scores more
27%

Lidköping W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lidköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elitettan: Lidköping W 0–4 Örebro SK W

Örebro SK W beat Lidköping W 4-0 in Elitettan on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Framnäs IP in Lidköping.