Lidköping W 3–3 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Lidköping W

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Eskilstuna United W

S. Michael 56', 22'

E. Björkman 40'

E. Bülow 89'

L. Hallin 9'

N. Robertson 4'

10/12/2024

Elitettan · Round 23Framnäs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Lidköping W43%

×Draw22%

Eskilstuna United W35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lidköping WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.65

Lidköping W

1.86

Eskilstuna United W

1.65

Lidköping W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 39 away

1.96

creates per match

1.82

1.48

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Lidköping W

1.96

Eskilstuna United W

1.82

allows per match

Lidköping W

1.48

Eskilstuna United W

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lidköping W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidköping W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lidköping W or draw

65%

Lidköping W or Eskilstuna United W

78%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

57%

Winning margin

Lidköping W wins by 2+

23%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lidköping W 1+ goals

84%

Lidköping W 2+ goals

55%

Lidköping W 3+ goals

28%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

81%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

49%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Lidköping W (draw refunded)

55%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidköping W at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidköping W attack 1.96 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.82 + Lidköping W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lidköping W scores more

43%

level

22%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

35%

Lidköping W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lidköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

9'

22'

40'

45+1'

56'

62'

T. Pettersson← T. Ahlén

62'

E. Bülow← C. Eriksson

75'

P. McAllister

77'

E. Sjögren← S. Michael

81'

E. Sjogren

83'

L. Özdemir← M. Eriholm

89'

E. Bülow

Lidköping

Eskilstuna

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Michael

▼

Ahlén

⚽

Björkman

Manager: R. Carlén

62'▲T. Pettersson←▼T. Ahlén

77'▲E. Sjögren←▼S. Michael

Lidköping W substitutes

PetterssonSjögrenAhlénStrömbergAllardÖstlind

Manager: V. Barsley

62'▲E. Bülow←▼C. Eriksson

83'▲L. Özdemir←▼M. Eriholm

Eskilstuna United W substitutes

BülowÖzdemirWiklundTilleniusSellingHämäläinenYouhana

Elitettan: Lidköping W 3–3 Eskilstuna United W

Lidköping W and Eskilstuna United W drew 3-3 in Elitettan on October 12, 2024.

Goals: N. Robertson (4'), L. Hallin (9'), S. Michael (22', 56'), E. Björkman (40'), E. Bülow (89').

The match was played at Framnäs IP in Lidköping.

Lidköping W vs Eskilstuna United W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: Lidköping W 3–3 Eskilstuna United W