Lidköping W 2–3 AIK W: Result & Stats | Elitettan

Lidköping W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

AIK W

7/8/2023

Elitettan · Round 14Framnäs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lidköping W21%

×Draw19%

AIK W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lidköping WExpected goals in this matchAIK W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.47

Lidköping W

1.41

AIK W

2.47

AIK W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 13 away

1.96

creates per match

3.46

1.48

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Lidköping W

1.96

AIK W

3.46

allows per match

Lidköping W

1.48

AIK W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lidköping W+0.00on par

AIK W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidköping W ↓

AIK W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Lidköping W or draw

40%

Lidköping W or AIK W

81%

Draw or AIK W

79%

Winning margin

Lidköping W wins by 2+

9%

AIK W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Lidköping W 1+ goals

76%

Lidköping W 2+ goals

41%

Lidköping W 3+ goals

17%

AIK W 1+ goals

91%

AIK W 2+ goals

70%

AIK W 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Lidköping W (draw refunded)

26%

AIK W (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidköping W at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

AIK W away — creates 3.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidköping W attack 1.96 + AIK W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.41

AIK W attack 3.46 + Lidköping W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lidköping W scores more

21%

level

19%

AIK W scores more

60%

AIK W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "AIK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff