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Lidköping vs Oddevold — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Lidköping
Lidköping
FT
0 – 0
Oddevold
Oddevold
11/20/2021Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 8Framnäs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Lidköping24%
×Draw24%
Oddevold52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lidköping
1.10
Oddevold
1.73

Oddevold creates 57% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lidköping
1.65
Oddevold
2.30

allows per match

Lidköping
1.17
Oddevold
0.55

finishing

Lidköping+0.00on par
Oddevold+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidköping ↓

Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lidköping or draw
48%
Lidköping or Oddevold
76%
Draw or Oddevold
76%

Winning margin

Lidköping wins by 2+
9%
Oddevold wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lidköping 1+ goals
67%
Lidköping 2+ goals
30%
Lidköping 3+ goals
10%
Oddevold 1+ goals
82%
Oddevold 2+ goals
52%
Oddevold 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Lidköping (draw refunded)
32%
Oddevold (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidköping at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Oddevold away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidköping attack 1.65 + Oddevold defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.10

Oddevold attack 2.30 + Lidköping defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lidköping scores more
24%
level
24%
Oddevold scores more
52%

Oddevold at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oddevold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lidköping vs Oddevold

Lidköping and Oddevold drew 0-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Framnäs IP in Lidköping.