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Lidingö vs Mora — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Lidingö
Lidingö
FT
1 – 1
Mora
Mora
8/10/2019Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Round 17Lidingövallen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lidingö53%
×Draw21%
Mora26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lidingö
2.15
Mora
1.48

Lidingö creates 45% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lidingö
1.93
Mora
1.15

allows per match

Lidingö
1.80
Mora
2.38

finishing

Lidingö+0.00on par
Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidingö ↓

Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Lidingö or draw
74%
Lidingö or Mora
79%
Draw or Mora
47%

Winning margin

Lidingö wins by 2+
31%
Mora wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lidingö 1+ goals
88%
Lidingö 2+ goals
63%
Lidingö 3+ goals
36%
Mora 1+ goals
77%
Mora 2+ goals
43%
Mora 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lidingö (draw refunded)
67%
Mora (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidingö at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.80 · 40 matches

Mora away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidingö attack 1.93 + Mora defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.15

Mora attack 1.15 + Lidingö defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lidingö scores more
53%
level
21%
Mora scores more
26%

Lidingö at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lidingö will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lidingö vs Mora

Lidingö and Mora drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Lidingövallen 2 in Lidingö.