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Lidingö vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Lidingö
Lidingö
FT
3 – 4
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
9/10/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 21Lidingövallen 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lidingö48%
×Draw21%
IFK Eskilstuna31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lidingö
2.17
IFK Eskilstuna
1.71

Lidingö creates 27% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Lidingö
1.92
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Lidingö
2.00
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Lidingö+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lidingö ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Lidingö or draw
69%
Lidingö or IFK Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
52%

Winning margin

Lidingö wins by 2+
28%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lidingö 1+ goals
89%
Lidingö 2+ goals
64%
Lidingö 3+ goals
36%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
82%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
51%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lidingö (draw refunded)
61%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lidingö at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lidingö attack 1.92 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.17

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Lidingö defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lidingö scores more
48%
level
21%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
31%

Lidingö at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lidingö will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lidingö vs IFK Eskilstuna

IFK Eskilstuna beat Lidingö 4-3 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Lidingövallen 2 in Lidingö.