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Lida vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Lida
Lida
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
11/12/20221. Division1. Division · Round 26Stadyen Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lida43%
×Draw24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lida
1.64
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.42

Lida creates 15% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 62 away

creates per match

Lida
1.60
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Lida
1.30
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Lida+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lida or draw
67%
Lida or Shakhtyor Petrikov
76%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
57%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+
22%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals
81%
Lida 2+ goals
49%
Lida 3+ goals
23%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
76%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
41%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)
56%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.60 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Lida defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lida scores more
43%
level
24%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
33%

Lida at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lida vs Shakhtyor Petrikov

Lida beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 2-1 in 1. Division on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadyen Start in Lida.