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Lida vs Ruh Brest — 1. Division 2018

Lida
Lida
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
8/31/20191. Division1. Division · Round 18Stadyen Start (Lida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lida25%
×Draw23%
Ruh Brest52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lida
1.23
Ruh Brest
1.87

Ruh Brest creates 52% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lida
1.60
Ruh Brest
2.43

allows per match

Lida
1.30
Ruh Brest
0.86

finishing

Lida+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lida or draw
48%
Lida or Ruh Brest
77%
Draw or Ruh Brest
75%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+
10%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals
71%
Lida 2+ goals
35%
Lida 3+ goals
13%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
85%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
56%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)
32%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 2.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.60 + Ruh Brest defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ruh Brest attack 2.43 + Lida defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lida scores more
25%
level
23%
Ruh Brest scores more
52%

Ruh Brest at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lida vs Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat Lida 4-2 in 1. Division on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Stadyen Start (Lida).