Lida 0–0 Bumprom: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Lida

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bumprom

11/9/2024

1. Division · Round 32Stadyen Start

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lida43%

×Draw25%

Bumprom32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LidaExpected goals in this matchBumprom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Lida

1.52

Bumprom

1.29

Lida creates 18% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 56 away

1.60

creates per match

1.27

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Lida

1.60

Bumprom

1.27

allows per match

Lida

1.30

Bumprom

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lida+0.00on par

Bumprom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lida ↓

Bumprom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lida or draw

68%

Lida or Bumprom

75%

Draw or Bumprom

57%

Winning margin

Lida wins by 2+

21%

Bumprom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lida 1+ goals

78%

Lida 2+ goals

45%

Lida 3+ goals

20%

Bumprom 1+ goals

72%

Bumprom 2+ goals

37%

Bumprom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lida (draw refunded)

57%

Bumprom (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lida at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

Bumprom away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lida attack 1.60 + Bumprom defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Bumprom attack 1.27 + Lida defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lida scores more

43%

level

25%

Bumprom scores more

32%

Lida at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Savitskiy← D. Kovalev

14'

D. Golenko

35'

A. Zhvirblya← D. Golenko

46'

D. Khalimonchikov← V. Dubrovskiy

46'

M. Vospukov← A. Zhevnerenko

50'

D. Gradoboev

62'

A. Abramov

71'

D. Slesarchuk← A. Burnos

73'

S. Slepov

77'

K. Elagin← S. Slepov

85'

V. Tonkevich

Lida

Bumprom

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Dobrovolskiy

71'▲D. Slesarchuk←▼A. Burnos

Lida substitutes

SlesarchukSalygoYanushkoKhalyavitskiyKhodykoZaytsevChernyakKovalyukParmonovZaets

Manager: A. Kravchenko

3'▲A. Savitskiy←▼D. Kovalev

35'▲A. Zhvirblya←▼D. Golenko

46'▲D. Khalimonchikov←▼V. Dubrovskiy

46'▲M. Vospukov←▼A. Zhevnerenko

77'▲K. Elagin←▼S. Slepov

Bumprom substitutes

SavitskiyZhvirblyaKhalimonchikovVospukovElaginDenisenkoSimonchikMukhin

Match Recap: Lida vs Bumprom

Lida and Bumprom drew 0-0 in 1. Division on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen Start in Lida.

Lida vs Bumprom — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lida vs Bumprom