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Lichtenberg vs Tasmania Berlin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
3/1/2026Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 19HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Lichtenberg56%
×Draw21%
Tasmania Berlin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lichtenberg
2.13
Tasmania Berlin
1.31

Lichtenberg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

creates per match

Lichtenberg
2.62
Tasmania Berlin
1.70

allows per match

Lichtenberg
0.93
Tasmania Berlin
1.65

finishing

Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lichtenberg ↓

Tasmania Berlin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lichtenberg or draw
77%
Lichtenberg or Tasmania Berlin
79%
Draw or Tasmania Berlin
44%

Winning margin

Lichtenberg wins by 2+
34%
Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lichtenberg 1+ goals
88%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
63%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
35%
Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
73%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
38%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
71%
Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lichtenberg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Tasmania Berlin away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lichtenberg attack 2.62 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.13

Tasmania Berlin attack 1.70 + Lichtenberg defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lichtenberg scores more
56%
level
21%
Tasmania Berlin scores more
23%

Lichtenberg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Lichtenberg 1–2 Tasmania Berlin

Tasmania Berlin beat Lichtenberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke in Berlin.