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Lichtenberg vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Lichtenberg
Lichtenberg
CANC
12:00
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
5/5/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 26HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lichtenberg60%
×Draw21%
CFC Hertha19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lichtenberg
2.12
CFC Hertha
1.11

Lichtenberg creates 91% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lichtenberg
2.62
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Lichtenberg
0.93
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Lichtenberg+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lichtenberg ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Lichtenberg or draw
81%
Lichtenberg or CFC Hertha
79%
Draw or CFC Hertha
40%

Winning margin

Lichtenberg wins by 2+
37%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lichtenberg 1+ goals
88%
Lichtenberg 2+ goals
62%
Lichtenberg 3+ goals
35%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
67%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
30%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
76%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lichtenberg at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lichtenberg attack 2.62 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.12

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Lichtenberg defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lichtenberg scores more
60%
level
21%
CFC Hertha scores more
19%

Lichtenberg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lichtenberg vs CFC Hertha — Match Preview

Lichtenberg face CFC Hertha on May 5, 2024 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lichtenberg host CFC Hertha at HOWOGE-Arena Hans Zoschke.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.