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Libya vs Zambia — Friendlies 2026

Libya
Libya
CANC
12:00
Zambia
Zambia
9/21/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 111 June Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Libya55%
×Draw26%
Zambia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libya
1.50
Zambia
0.77

Libya creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Libya
0.83
Zambia
1.21

allows per match

Libya
0.33
Zambia
2.17

finishing

Libya+0.00on par
Zambia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libya ↓

Zambia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Libya or draw
81%
Libya or Zambia
74%
Draw or Zambia
45%

Winning margin

Libya wins by 2+
28%
Zambia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Libya 1+ goals
78%
Libya 2+ goals
44%
Libya 3+ goals
19%
Zambia 1+ goals
54%
Zambia 2+ goals
18%
Zambia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Libya (draw refunded)
74%
Zambia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Zambia away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libya attack 0.83 + Zambia defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.50

Zambia attack 1.21 + Libya defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Libya scores more
55%
level
26%
Zambia scores more
19%

Libya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Libya face Zambia (Friendlies)

Friendlies returns with Libya hosting Zambia. Match starts September 21, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Libya host Zambia at 11 June Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.