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Libya vs Uganda — Friendlies 2026

Libya
Libya
FT
0 – 0
Uganda
Uganda
9/21/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Martyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Libya50%
×Draw32%
Uganda19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libya
1.15
Uganda
0.58

Libya creates 98% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 24 away

creates per match

Libya
0.83
Uganda
0.83

allows per match

Libya
0.33
Uganda
1.46

finishing

Libya+0.00on par
Uganda+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libya ↓

Uganda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Libya or draw
81%
Libya or Uganda
68%
Draw or Uganda
50%

Winning margin

Libya wins by 2+
22%
Uganda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Libya 1+ goals
68%
Libya 2+ goals
32%
Libya 3+ goals
11%
Uganda 1+ goals
44%
Uganda 2+ goals
12%
Uganda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Libya (draw refunded)
73%
Uganda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Uganda away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libya attack 0.83 + Uganda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.15

Uganda attack 0.83 + Libya defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Libya scores more
50%
level
32%
Uganda scores more
19%

Libya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Libya 0–0 Uganda

Libya and Uganda drew 0-0 in Friendlies on September 21, 2022.

The match was played at Martyrs of February Stadium in Benghazi.