Libya 2–1 Tanzania: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Libya

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tanzania

Mohammed Salih Ali Sola 49', 21' (pen)

S. Khamis 40'

9/27/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Martyrs of February Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Libya54%

×Draw31%

Tanzania15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibyaExpected goals in this matchTanzania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.50

Libya

1.21

Tanzania

0.50

Libya creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Libya

0.83

Tanzania

0.67

allows per match

Libya

0.33

Tanzania

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libya+0.00on par

Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libya ↓

Tanzania →

0–018%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Libya or draw

85%

Libya or Tanzania

69%

Draw or Tanzania

46%

Winning margin

Libya wins by 2+

25%

Tanzania wins by 2+

Team goals

Libya 1+ goals

70%

Libya 2+ goals

34%

Libya 3+ goals

12%

Tanzania 1+ goals

39%

Tanzania 2+ goals

Tanzania 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Libya (draw refunded)

78%

Tanzania (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Libya at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Tanzania away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Libya attack 0.83 + Tanzania defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tanzania attack 0.67 + Libya defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Libya scores more

54%

level

31%

Tanzania scores more

15%

Libya at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Libya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Mohammed Salih Ali SolaPenalty

40'

S. Khamis

48'

Himid Mao Mkami

49'

Mohammed Salih Ali Sola↳ Ahmed Al Maghasi

67'

Charles David Luhende

70'

80'

90+3'

90+3'

90+5'

Libya4-3-3

Tanzania4-3-3

Joshua

⚽

▼

⚽2

Manager: C. Martins

Libya substitutes

19Eisay

Manager: K. Poulsen

80'▲S. Ndemla←▼S. Khamis

Tanzania substitutes

3Ndemla1Kipao13Kakolanya15Masai17Kyombo25Kirenge