Liberty Professionals 1–0 Karela: Result & Stats

Liberty Professionals

FT

1 – 0

Karela

5/6/2018

Premier League · Round 12Dansoman Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Liberty Professionals48%

×Draw28%

Karela25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liberty ProfessionalsExpected goals in this matchKarela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.90

Liberty Professionals

1.37

Karela

0.90

Liberty Professionals creates 52% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 110 away

1.43

creates per match

0.60

1.20

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Liberty Professionals

1.43

Karela

0.60

allows per match

Liberty Professionals

1.20

Karela

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par

Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberty Professionals ↓

Karela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Liberty Professionals or draw

75%

Liberty Professionals or Karela

72%

Draw or Karela

52%

Winning margin

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+

23%

Karela wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals

75%

Liberty Professionals 2+ goals

40%

Liberty Professionals 3+ goals

16%

Karela 1+ goals

59%

Karela 2+ goals

23%

Karela 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)

66%

Karela (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberty Professionals at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Karela away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberty Professionals attack 1.43 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Karela attack 0.60 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Liberty Professionals scores more

48%

level

28%

Karela scores more

25%

Liberty Professionals at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Liberty Professionals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff