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Liberty Professionals vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

Liberty Professionals
Liberty Professionals
FT
2 – 2
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
W. Abraham 72' (pen)
S. Ampaw 68'
H. Musah 90+5'
S. Nafui 22'
2/14/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Dansoman Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Liberty Professionals52%
×Draw26%
Inter Allies22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberty Professionals
1.54
Inter Allies
0.91

Liberty Professionals creates 69% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

creates per match

Liberty Professionals
1.43
Inter Allies
0.62

allows per match

Liberty Professionals
1.20
Inter Allies
1.66

finishing

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberty Professionals ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Liberty Professionals or draw
78%
Liberty Professionals or Inter Allies
74%
Draw or Inter Allies
48%

Winning margin

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+
27%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals
79%
Liberty Professionals 2+ goals
45%
Liberty Professionals 3+ goals
20%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
60%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
23%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)
70%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberty Professionals at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberty Professionals attack 1.43 + Inter Allies defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Inter Allies attack 0.62 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Liberty Professionals scores more
52%
level
26%
Inter Allies scores more
22%

Liberty Professionals at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Liberty Professionals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
S. Nafui
43'
43'
M. Laryea
51'
E. Adjetey← E. Adjetey
56'
S. Ahmed← S. Ahmed
62'
M. Zakari← M. Zakari
63'
P. Kwame← P. Kwame
68'
S. Ampaw
71'
H. Musah← H. Musah
72'
W. AbrahamPenalty
90+5'
H. Musah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Liberty Professionals vs Inter Allies

Liberty Professionals and Inter Allies drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 14, 2021.

Goals: S. Nafui (22'), S. Ampaw (68'), W. Abraham (72' pen), H. Musah (90+5').

The match was played at Dansoman Park in Accra.