Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Liberty Professionals vs Elmina Sharks — Premier League 2019

Liberty Professionals
Liberty Professionals
FT
4 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
W. Opoku 89'
K. Karikari 80' (pen)
S. Asamoah 60'
P. Kwame 36'
4/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Liberty Professionals55%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liberty Professionals
1.62
Elmina Sharks
0.89

Liberty Professionals creates 82% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 41 away

creates per match

Liberty Professionals
1.48
Elmina Sharks
0.59

allows per match

Liberty Professionals
1.19
Elmina Sharks
1.76

finishing

Liberty Professionals+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liberty Professionals ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Liberty Professionals or draw
79%
Liberty Professionals or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
45%

Winning margin

Liberty Professionals wins by 2+
29%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Liberty Professionals 1+ goals
80%
Liberty Professionals 2+ goals
48%
Liberty Professionals 3+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
59%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Liberty Professionals (draw refunded)
73%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liberty Professionals at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liberty Professionals attack 1.48 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.62

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Liberty Professionals defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Liberty Professionals scores more
55%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
21%

Liberty Professionals at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Liberty Professionals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
A. S. Appiah
23'
36'
P. Kwame
45+1'
46'
G. Amoako← G. Amoako
46'
R. Sule← R. Sule
51'
60'
S. Asamoah
66'
80'
K. KarikariPenalty
82'
S. Ampaw← S. Ampaw
86'
W. Opoku← W. Opoku
89'
W. Opoku

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liberty Professionals 4 – 0 Elmina Sharks

Liberty Professionals beat Elmina Sharks 4-0 in Premier League on April 10, 2021.

Goals: P. Kwame (36'), S. Asamoah (60'), K. Karikari (80' pen), W. Opoku (89').

The match was played at West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex in Sogakope.