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Libertas vs Domagnano — Coppa Titano 2020

Libertas
Libertasadvanced
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Domagnano
Domagnano
10/19/2022Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio di Domagnano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Libertas40%
×Draw22%
Domagnano38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertas
1.78
Domagnano
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Libertas
1.67
Domagnano
0.90

allows per match

Libertas
2.56
Domagnano
1.90

finishing

Libertas+0.00on par
Domagnano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertas ↓

Domagnano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Libertas or draw
62%
Libertas or Domagnano
78%
Draw or Domagnano
60%

Winning margin

Libertas wins by 2+
21%
Domagnano wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Libertas 1+ goals
83%
Libertas 2+ goals
53%
Libertas 3+ goals
26%
Domagnano 1+ goals
82%
Domagnano 2+ goals
52%
Domagnano 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Libertas (draw refunded)
51%
Domagnano (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertas at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

Domagnano away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertas attack 1.67 + Domagnano defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Domagnano attack 0.90 + Libertas defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertas scores more
40%
level
22%
Domagnano scores more
38%

Libertas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertas vs Domagnano

Libertas beat Domagnano 6-2 in Coppa Titano on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio di Domagnano in Domagnano.