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Libertador FC vs Yaracuyanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
1 – 1
Yaracuyanos FC
Yaracuyanos FC
3/10/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Libertador FC36%
×Draw26%
Yaracuyanos FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.28
Yaracuyanos FC
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 80 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Yaracuyanos FC
1.45

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Yaracuyanos FC
1.26

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Yaracuyanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Yaracuyanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
62%
Libertador FC or Yaracuyanos FC
74%
Draw or Yaracuyanos FC
64%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
16%
Yaracuyanos FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
72%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
37%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
14%
Yaracuyanos FC 1+ goals
73%
Yaracuyanos FC 2+ goals
38%
Yaracuyanos FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
49%
Yaracuyanos FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Yaracuyanos FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Yaracuyanos FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Yaracuyanos FC attack 1.45 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertador FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Yaracuyanos FC scores more
38%

Yaracuyanos FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yaracuyanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Libertador FC 1–1 Yaracuyanos FC

Libertador FC and Yaracuyanos FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas).