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Libertador FC vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
0 – 3
Petare FC
Petare FC
8/1/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 3Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Libertador FC40%
×Draw29%
Petare FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.19
Petare FC
1.01

Libertador FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 102 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
69%
Libertador FC or Petare FC
71%
Draw or Petare FC
60%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
17%
Petare FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
70%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
33%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
12%
Petare FC 1+ goals
64%
Petare FC 2+ goals
27%
Petare FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
56%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertador FC scores more
40%
level
29%
Petare FC scores more
31%

Libertador FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Libertador FC 0–3 Petare FC

Petare FC beat Libertador FC 3-0 in Segunda División on August 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas).