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Libertador FC vs Gran Valencia — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
2 – 2
Gran Valencia
Gran Valencia
4/7/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Libertador FC40%
×Draw27%
Gran Valencia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.31
Gran Valencia
1.17

Libertador FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 31 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Gran Valencia
1.16

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Gran Valencia
1.32

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Gran Valencia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Gran Valencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
67%
Libertador FC or Gran Valencia
73%
Draw or Gran Valencia
60%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
18%
Gran Valencia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
73%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
38%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
14%
Gran Valencia 1+ goals
69%
Gran Valencia 2+ goals
33%
Gran Valencia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
55%
Gran Valencia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Gran Valencia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Gran Valencia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gran Valencia attack 1.16 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertador FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Gran Valencia scores more
33%

Libertador FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Libertador FC 2–2 Gran Valencia

Libertador FC and Gran Valencia drew 2-2 in Segunda División on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas).