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Libertador FC vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
1 – 0
Angostura FC
Angostura FC
8/11/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 5Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Libertador FC40%
×Draw27%
Angostura FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.29
Angostura FC
1.12

Libertador FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
68%
Libertador FC or Angostura FC
73%
Draw or Angostura FC
60%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
18%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
72%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
37%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
14%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
67%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
31%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
56%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertador FC scores more
40%
level
27%
Angostura FC scores more
32%

Libertador FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Libertador FC vs Angostura FC

Libertador FC beat Angostura FC 1-0 in Segunda División on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad Santa Maria (Caracas).