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Angostura FC vs Libertador FC — Segunda División 2018

Angostura FC
Angostura FC
FT
1 – 1
Libertador FC
Libertador FC
8/14/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Angostura FC51%
×Draw27%
Libertador FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Angostura FC
1.42
Libertador FC
0.82

Angostura FC creates 73% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 45 away

creates per match

Angostura FC
1.50
Libertador FC
0.73

allows per match

Angostura FC
0.91
Libertador FC
1.33

finishing

Angostura FC+0.00on par
Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angostura FC ↓

Libertador FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Angostura FC or draw
78%
Angostura FC or Libertador FC
73%
Draw or Libertador FC
49%

Winning margin

Angostura FC wins by 2+
25%
Libertador FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Angostura FC 1+ goals
76%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
41%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
17%
Libertador FC 1+ goals
56%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
20%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Angostura FC (draw refunded)
70%
Libertador FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angostura FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.91 · 74 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angostura FC attack 1.50 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Angostura FC defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Angostura FC scores more
51%
level
27%
Libertador FC scores more
22%

Angostura FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Angostura FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Angostura FC 1–1 Libertador FC

Angostura FC and Libertador FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.