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Libertad vs Vaca Díez — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vaca Díez
Vaca Díez
2/4/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 1Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Libertad59%
×Draw22%
Vaca Díez19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.90
Vaca Díez
0.97

Libertad creates 96% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Vaca Díez
1.00

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Vaca Díez
2.44

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Vaca Díez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Vaca Díez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
81%
Libertad or Vaca Díez
78%
Draw or Vaca Díez
41%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
35%
Vaca Díez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
85%
Libertad 2+ goals
56%
Libertad 3+ goals
29%
Vaca Díez 1+ goals
62%
Vaca Díez 2+ goals
25%
Vaca Díez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
76%
Vaca Díez (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Vaca Díez away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Vaca Díez defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vaca Díez attack 1.00 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Libertad scores more
59%
level
22%
Vaca Díez scores more
19%

Libertad at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Libertad 3–2 Vaca Díez

Libertad beat Vaca Díez 3-2 in Primera División on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.