Libertad 1–0 The Strongest: Result & Stats

Libertad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

The Strongest

5/14/2023

Primera División · Round 13Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad38%

×Draw26%

The Strongest35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibertadExpected goals in this matchThe Strongest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.27

Libertad

1.33

The Strongest

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

1.35

creates per match

1.60

0.94

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Libertad

1.35

The Strongest

1.60

allows per match

Libertad

0.94

The Strongest

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par

The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

The Strongest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Libertad or draw

65%

Libertad or The Strongest

74%

Draw or The Strongest

62%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+

17%

The Strongest wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals

74%

Libertad 2+ goals

38%

Libertad 3+ goals

15%

The Strongest 1+ goals

72%

The Strongest 2+ goals

36%

The Strongest 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)

52%

The Strongest (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Libertad scores more

38%

level

26%

The Strongest scores more

35%

Libertad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff