Libertad 0–2 Royal Pari: Result & Stats

Libertad

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Royal Pari

11/5/2023

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad51%

×Draw25%

Royal Pari24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibertadExpected goals in this matchRoyal Pari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.05

Libertad

1.64

Royal Pari

1.05

Libertad creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 112 away

1.35

creates per match

1.17

0.94

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Libertad

1.35

Royal Pari

1.17

allows per match

Libertad

0.94

Royal Pari

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par

Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Royal Pari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Libertad or draw

76%

Libertad or Royal Pari

75%

Draw or Royal Pari

49%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+

27%

Royal Pari wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals

81%

Libertad 2+ goals

49%

Libertad 3+ goals

23%

Royal Pari 1+ goals

65%

Royal Pari 2+ goals

28%

Royal Pari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)

68%

Royal Pari (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Libertad scores more

51%

level

25%

Royal Pari scores more

24%

Libertad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff