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Libertad vs Guayaquil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Libertad
Libertad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil
Guayaquil
H. Lino 80'
8/19/2022Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 22Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Libertad52%
×Draw26%
Guayaquil22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.54
Guayaquil
0.90

Libertad creates 71% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.50
Guayaquil
0.91

allows per match

Libertad
0.89
Guayaquil
1.59

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Guayaquil+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Guayaquil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
78%
Libertad or Guayaquil
74%
Draw or Guayaquil
48%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
27%
Guayaquil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
79%
Libertad 2+ goals
45%
Libertad 3+ goals
20%
Guayaquil 1+ goals
59%
Guayaquil 2+ goals
23%
Guayaquil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
70%
Guayaquil (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Guayaquil away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.59 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.50 + Guayaquil defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guayaquil attack 0.91 + Libertad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Libertad scores more
52%
level
26%
Guayaquil scores more
22%

Libertad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
H. Lino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Libertad 0–1 Guayaquil

Guayaquil beat Libertad 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 19, 2022.

Goals: H. Lino (80').

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.