Libertad 0–1 Guabirá: Result & Stats

Libertad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guabirá

5/1/2023

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad58%

×Draw23%

Guabirá19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LibertadExpected goals in this matchGuabirá

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.93

Libertad

1.81

Guabirá

0.93

Libertad creates 95% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 129 away

1.35

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Libertad

1.35

Guabirá

0.92

allows per match

Libertad

0.94

Guabirá

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par

Guabirá+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Guabirá →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Libertad or draw

81%

Libertad or Guabirá

77%

Draw or Guabirá

42%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+

33%

Guabirá wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals

84%

Libertad 2+ goals

54%

Libertad 3+ goals

27%

Guabirá 1+ goals

61%

Guabirá 2+ goals

24%

Guabirá 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)

75%

Guabirá (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Guabirá away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.27 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Guabirá defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.81

Guabirá attack 0.92 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Libertad scores more

58%

level

23%

Guabirá scores more

19%

Libertad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff