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Libertad vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
11/30/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 15Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad40%
×Draw27%
Emelec33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.32
Emelec
1.17

Libertad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 131 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Emelec
1.18

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Emelec
1.33

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
67%
Libertad or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
60%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
18%
Emelec wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
73%
Libertad 2+ goals
38%
Libertad 3+ goals
15%
Emelec 1+ goals
69%
Emelec 2+ goals
33%
Emelec 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
55%
Emelec (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Emelec attack 1.18 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Libertad scores more
40%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
33%

Libertad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Libertad 2–1 Emelec

Libertad beat Emelec 2-1 in Liga Pro on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.