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Libertad vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
Preview
21:30
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
7/21/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 21Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Big match
47%
Libertad
model favours
47%26%27%

Delfin SC score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad47%
×Draw26%
Delfin SC27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.49
Delfin SC
1.05

Libertad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 133 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
73%
Libertad or Delfin SC
74%
Draw or Delfin SC
53%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
24%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
77%
Libertad 2+ goals
44%
Libertad 3+ goals
19%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
65%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
28%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
64%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Libertad scores more
47%
level
26%
Delfin SC scores more
27%

Libertad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 75% of Delfin SC’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 73% of Libertad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Libertad
Balanced
Delfin SC
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession44%
75%Pass accuracy72%
11.1Shots10.1
1.27xGBiggest gap0.63
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
LibertadDelfin SC

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

1
Libertad
3
Draws
3
Delfin SC
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 43%
0–00–00–12–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Libertad
LWDLL
SC
WWLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Libertad vs Delfin SC — Match Preview

Libertad face Delfin SC on July 21, 2026 in this Liga Pro fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Libertad host Delfin SC at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.