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Delfin SC vs Libertad — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad
Libertad
9/2/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 27Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Delfin SC38%
×Draw30%
Libertad32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.12
Libertad
1.00

Delfin SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
0.85
Libertad
0.97

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.03
Libertad
1.39

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Libertad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Libertad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
68%
Delfin SC or Libertad
70%
Draw or Libertad
62%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
16%
Libertad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
67%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
31%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
10%
Libertad 1+ goals
63%
Libertad 2+ goals
26%
Libertad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
54%
Libertad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Libertad away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 0.85 + Libertad defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Libertad attack 0.97 + Delfin SC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Delfin SC scores more
38%
level
30%
Libertad scores more
32%

Delfin SC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
K. BecerraLibertadLibertad · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
Mateo BurdissoPenalty cancelled
45'
Mateo Burdisso
63'
M. Reyes← H. Batalla
63'
O. Fernandez← J. Perez Tica
65'
Edison Vega
69'
J. Monaga← C. Arboleda
76'
A. Alvarez← J. Nazareno
78'
Orlin Quinonez
81'
J. Humanante← J. Bravo
81'
N. Caicedo← W. Ayovi
90'
J. Vivar← B. Cuello
90'
E. Zuniga← C. A. Cuero Q.

Possession

61%Delfin

Shots

12Delfin

Pass accuracy

54%Delfin

Statistics

DelfinLibertad
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots4
0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.18
7Corners3
13Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots4
3On Target0
7Off Target3
2Blocked1
8Inside Box2
4Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
430Total Passes276
337Accurate Passes185
78%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Liga Pro: Delfin SC 0–0 Libertad

Delfin SC and Libertad drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on September 2, 2025.

Delfin SC controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.