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Libertad vs Cumbayá — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cumbayá
Cumbayá
10/5/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 9Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Libertad53%
×Draw25%
Cumbayá22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.61
Cumbayá
0.93

Libertad creates 73% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Cumbayá
0.71

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Cumbayá
1.91

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Cumbayá+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Cumbayá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
78%
Libertad or Cumbayá
75%
Draw or Cumbayá
47%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
28%
Cumbayá wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
80%
Libertad 2+ goals
48%
Libertad 3+ goals
22%
Cumbayá 1+ goals
61%
Cumbayá 2+ goals
24%
Cumbayá 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
71%
Cumbayá (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Cumbayá away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Cumbayá defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cumbayá attack 0.71 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Libertad scores more
53%
level
25%
Cumbayá scores more
22%

Libertad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Libertad 2–1 Cumbayá

Libertad beat Cumbayá 2-1 in Liga Pro on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.