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Libertad vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Libertad
Libertad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
11/27/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Relegation RoundEstadio Gran Mamoré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Libertad60%
×Draw24%
Club Universitario16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.70
Club Universitario
0.76

Libertad creates 124% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.35
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Libertad
0.94
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
84%
Libertad or Club Universitario
76%
Draw or Club Universitario
40%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
34%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
82%
Libertad 2+ goals
51%
Libertad 3+ goals
24%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
53%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
18%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
78%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.35 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Libertad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Libertad scores more
60%
level
24%
Club Universitario scores more
16%

Libertad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Libertad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Libertad 3–0 Club Universitario

Libertad beat Club Universitario 3-0 in Primera División on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Gran Mamoré in Trinidad.