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Libertad vs Barcelona SC — Liga Pro 2026

Libertad
Libertad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
3/19/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 5Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Libertad36%
×Draw27%
Barcelona SC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad
1.24
Barcelona SC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 136 away

creates per match

Libertad
1.31
Barcelona SC
1.35

allows per match

Libertad
1.15
Barcelona SC
1.17

finishing

Libertad+0.00on par
Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad ↓

Barcelona SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Libertad or draw
63%
Libertad or Barcelona SC
73%
Draw or Barcelona SC
64%

Winning margin

Libertad wins by 2+
16%
Barcelona SC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Libertad 1+ goals
71%
Libertad 2+ goals
35%
Libertad 3+ goals
13%
Barcelona SC 1+ goals
71%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
36%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Libertad (draw refunded)
50%
Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad attack 1.31 + Barcelona SC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.24

Barcelona SC attack 1.35 + Libertad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Libertad scores more
36%
level
27%
Barcelona SC scores more
37%

Barcelona SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
E. PattaLibertadLibertad · D
7.2

Match Events

57'
G. J. Cortez Casierra← J. Bravo
57'
H. Batalla← J. Guisamano
64'
T. Martinez← M. Celiz
64'
D. Benedetto← H. Villalba
64'
B. Castillo← B. Carabali
66'
L. Sosa
72'
H. Batalla
72'
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
79'
J. Mina← J. Perlaza
82'
S. Bueno← A. Chere
89'
I. Zambrano
90+1'
G. J. Cortez Casierra
90+3'
C. Gruezo
90+8'
A. Rangel
90+4'
M. Parrales← L. Cano

Possession

51%Libertad

Shots

3Libertad

Pass accuracy

50%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadBarcelona
Overview
51%Possession49%
3Total Shots3
1Fouls0
Shots
3Total Shots3
1On Target1
2Off Target1
0Blocked1
0Inside Box2
3Outside Box1
Passing
51%Possession49%
85Total Passes84
67Accurate Passes66
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
1Fouls0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Libertad vs Barcelona SC

Libertad and Barcelona SC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on March 19, 2026.

Libertad controlled possession (51%) and registered 3 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne in Loja.