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Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno — League #252 2026

Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno
W. Gonzalez 31'
7/5/2025League #252League #252 · Clausura - 1Estadio Tigo La Huerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Libertad Asuncion27%
×Draw29%
Sportivo Luqueno44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertad Asuncion
0.91
Sportivo Luqueno
1.25

Sportivo Luqueno creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Libertad Asuncion
0.82
Sportivo Luqueno
1.33

allows per match

Libertad Asuncion
1.18
Sportivo Luqueno
1.00

finishing

Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par
Sportivo Luqueno+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertad Asuncion ↓

Sportivo Luqueno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Libertad Asuncion or draw
56%
Libertad Asuncion or Sportivo Luqueno
71%
Draw or Sportivo Luqueno
73%

Winning margin

Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
9%
Sportivo Luqueno wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
60%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
23%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
6%
Sportivo Luqueno 1+ goals
71%
Sportivo Luqueno 2+ goals
36%
Sportivo Luqueno 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
38%
Sportivo Luqueno (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertad Asuncion at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Sportivo Luqueno away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertad Asuncion attack 0.82 + Sportivo Luqueno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Sportivo Luqueno attack 1.33 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Libertad Asuncion scores more
27%
level
29%
Sportivo Luqueno scores more
44%

Sportivo Luqueno at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sportivo Luqueno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
L. MelgarejoLibertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion · M
7.9

Match Events

31'
W. Gonzalez
46'
H. Fernandez← J. Bogarin
61'
Néstor Giménez
68'
H. Martinez← A. Cardozo Lucena
68'
M. Fernandez← C. R. Santa
68'
L. Comas← K. Pereira
76'
F. Benitez← S. Quintana
77'
W. Rodriguez← J. Baez
81'
Hernesto Caballero
83'
Hugo Martínez
83'
A. Campuzano← H. Caballero
89'
P. Villalba← G. Aguilar
89'
S. Ocampos← M. Perez
89'
F. Santander← W. Gonzalez
90+4'
Alfredo Aguilar

Possession

73%Libertad

Shots

16Libertad

Pass accuracy

58%Libertad

Statistics

LibertadSportivo
Overview
73%Possession27%
16Total Shots9
2.51Expected Goals (xG)0.96
9Corners4
10Fouls16
Shots
16Total Shots9
3On Target4
10Off Target4
3Blocked1
11Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
73%Possession27%
566Total Passes213
468Accurate Passes127
83%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

Sportivo Luqueno beat Libertad Asuncion 1-0 in League #252 on July 5, 2025.

Goals: W. Gonzalez (31').

Libertad Asuncion controlled possession (73%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Tigo La Huerta in Asuncion.